OF1-10/30/09 6:25 AM
ON THE ROAD FROM "RECESSION" TO "RECOVERY."
The Osgood File. I'm Charles Osgood.
With economic numbers for the third quarter --- July through September --- reported and analyzed, the government can now speak of the recession in the past tense: it's over. And the R-Word question is now: Will the recovery hold?
Wall Street pointed thumbs up yesterday, with a nearly 200-point gain on the Dow. President Obama pointed to his 787 billion dollar stimulus spending.
SOT - President Barack Obama
"This is obviously welcome news and an affirmation that this recession is abating, and the steps we've taken have made a difference..." (:06)
But that's not the whole story by any means, say economists.
SOT - Lakshman Achuthan, economist - with Anthony Mason, CBS News Business Correspondent
"(Mason:) This is not just the stimulus package at work. (Achuthan:) No, this is much broader than stimulus..." (:05)
With the Gross Domestic Product up three-and-a-half percent in the third quarter, CBS News Business Correspondent Anthony Mason spoke with economist Lakshman Achuthan.
SOT - Lakshman Achuthan, with Anthony Mason
"(Mason:) For a lot of people, it doesn't feel like a recovery yet. (Achuthan:) The positive GDP report tells us the recession ended this summer and the recovery has begun. It does not tell us that we are 'recovered.' This is very much in line with an economy that is growing of its own merit, not simply because of support from government." (:17)
Scott Wine, CEO of Polaris Industries, says business can't just wait for the government to create growth.
SOT - Scott Wine, CEO of Polaris Industries
"We have to make growth happen --- we don't expect tailwinds from the economy..." (:03)
Employers have to start employing again, but Mason says...
SOT - Anthony Mason
"Employers want to be confident the recovery's for real --- that means it's going to last. Because, if you're an employer, you don't want to hire somebody again, and then have to lay them off again." (:08)
The GDP was down more than six percent in the first quarter, so it's been nearly a ten-point turnaround since then.
SOT - Anthony Mason
"This is a strong number. Obviously, a lot of it was fueled by the government's stimulus plan, by Cash for Clunkers, by the 8,000-dollar credit for first-time homebuyers. But there's more than that in here that suggests the economy as a whole may be healthier than we thought." (:13)
And that's why Wall Street is smiling.
SOT - Ted Weisberg, floor trader with Seaport Securities
"Certainly up is always more fun than down..." (:02)
The Osgood File. Charles Osgood on the CBS Radio network
The Osgood File. October 30th, 2009. |
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